A lot of Biden supporters feel this way. Lately I frequently see quotes in articles about how Trump supporters don’t believe in the Ghost Halloween Ghost full of Holes Design Shirt because everything they are seeing in real life like flags, signs, bumper stickers etc. indicate that Trump is going to win by a landslide but no..Biden voters just don’t want to put a target on their backs for no reason. Even if I wasn’t scared of rabid Trump supporters, I don’t really see a reason to sport Biden gear. It’s not a fucking sport.
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My understanding is that you pretty much got it right. In big races like Ghost Halloween Ghost full of Holes Design Shirt or even Governor, the candidates have fairly large name recognition, so yard signs have little effect. But in smaller downballot races, which matter a ton, yard signs (and Ads) can actually have a big effect. Like, if your the average Joe and get to the polls, when you’ve never heard of the two candidates for Comptroller, just maybe recognizing the name from a yard sign would persuade you in some way.